US Hydrocarbon Exports

US hydrocarbons in a global context: Export markets and infrastructure

 

Moderator: Chris Hedge, Head of Markets, Oils & NGLs, Wood Mackenzie



1:00 PM - 1:30 PM The great crude midstream arms race: moving offshore


Speaker: 
John Coleman, Principal Analyst North American Crude Markets, Wood Mackenzie


US crude exports are still very nascent in their story timeline – having been legalized only four years ago. Export volumes are up six-fold from 2016 levels and growth is showing little sign of slowing. The race is on to keep the story rolling – development of offshore terminals capable of loading the largest crude carriers promises to continue giving US producers efficient global access.

 

The key question: how many projects are needed? What are the economics of new offshore terminals and what markets will take US light sweet crude over the long term?


1:30 PM - 2:00 PM Race to the bottom: At what cost will LPG clear the US?


Speaker: Prachi Mehta, Senior Analyst Americas NGLs, Wood Mackenzie

 

US LPG exports have consistently averaged over one million b/d in 2019 and yet, LPG prices keep falling, globally, to multi-year lows. With even more production growth hitting the market over the next five years, amid trade tariffs and tightening freight, how much LPG will have to clear as exports to balance the market? How much can the world take and at what cost? And to top it off, what do falling LPG prices mean for US ethane exports and the ethane feedstock advantage?

 

2:00 PM - 2:30 PM US Refined Product Exports and refining landscape - US Refined Product Exports: Going Long


Speaker: Mark Broadbent, Principal Analyst Downstream Oil Markets, Wood Mackenzie

The Atlantic basin is moving in a direction of net length for clean products – an ominous storm cloud for disadvantaged US and European refiners. What does the balance look like and when could Atlantic basin refiners need to start searching for additional markets? What are the end market dynamics in Latin America – key export markets for US Gulf Coast refiners? And in a shifting refined product export landscape, which refiners are most at risk?




2:30 PM - 3:00 PM Networking Break




3:00 PM - 3:25 PM US Gas – will there enough pipelines to support the next wave of LNG exports?


Speaker: Eugene Kim, Director Americas Gas Research, Wood Mackenzie


US pipeline buildout over the last several years have been primarily focused on debottlenecking export capacity out of the Northeast as production outpaced regional demand levels. Destination markets were largely in the Midwest and Southeast. The next round of US pipeline buildout is focusing on supporting growing associated Permian and resurging dry Haynesville production. Destination markets this time around are ultimately abroad primarily in the form of LNG exports that are set to reach 26 bcfd by 2040.

 

Where will the growing LNG feed gas volumes be sourced from? Are there sufficient pipelines being developed to transport these volumes to the growing list of LNG liquefaction projects? What will be the delivered cost of feed gas volumes?


3:25 PM - 3:45 
US LNG – will the marketing momentum continue?

Speaker: Alex Munton, Principal Analyst Americas LNG, Wood Mackenzie


For developers of proposed new US LNG capacity, the overriding focus is on marketing. Last year, the successful marketing efforts led by Cheniere and Venture Global resulted in the sanctioning of around 20 mmtpa of new capacity. Several projects have made significant progress, but critical to their success will be securing the remaining offtake needed to support financing.

 

What is the outlook for the current pre-FID landscape? How are marketing strategies evolving? And, which projects are best positioned within the current market to reach FID?



3:45 PM - 4:30 PM The logistics of exports: challenges and opportunities in developing export infrastructure assets 

Panelists: John Ackerman, CFO, Moda Midstream; Emily Browning, Director Supply and Trading, Cheniere Energy; Sean StrawbridgeCEO Port of Corpus Christi Authority




4:30 PM - 6:00 PM Networking Drinks Reception


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