Monday Morning, October 31, 2011
7:20-8:20 Registration and Continental Breakfast
8:20-8:30 Welcome: Duncan McBranch, LANL, Deputy Principal Associate Director
8:30-8:40 Introduction: Petr Chylek
M-I: Models, Forcing, and Feedbacks (Chairs: Jerry North and V. Ramaswamy)
8:50-9:10 M-1: P. Huybers (Harvard) Regional Temperature Predictions from a Minimalist Model
9:10-9:30 M-2: J. Curry (Georgia Tech) A Critical Look at the IPCC AR4 Climate Change Detection and Attribution
9:30-9:50 M-3: R. Lindzen (MIT) Climate v. Climate Alarm
9:50-10:10 M-4: A. Tsonis (Wisconsin) A New Dynamical Mechanism for Major Climate Shifts
10:10-10:25 Discussion
10:25-10:55 Coffee and Refreshment
M-II: Aerosols and Clouds (Chairs: Hans von Storch and Jon Reisner)
10:55-11:15 M-5: P. Rasch (PNNL) Exploration of aerosol, cloud and dynamical feedbacks in the climate-cryosphere system
11:15-11:35 M-6: D. Rosenfeld (Hebrew U Jerusalem) Number of activated CCN as a key property in cloud-aerosol interactions
11:35-11:55 M-7: W. Cotton (CSU) Potential impacts of aerosols on water resources in the Colorado River Basin
11:55-12:15 M-8: B. Stevens (Max Planck Institute) The Cloud Conundrum
12:15-12:30 Discussion
12:30-2:00 Lunch on your own
Monday Afternoon, October 31
M-III: The Arctic (Chairs: Peter Webster and William Lipscomb)
2:00-2:20 M-9: I. Polyakov (U Alaska) Recent and Long-Term Changes in the Arctic Climate System
2:20-2:40 M-10: J. Sedlacek (ETH Zurich) Impact of a reduced sea ice cover on lower latitudes
2:40-3:00 M-11: S. Mernild (LANL) Accelerated melting and disappearance of glaciers and ice caps
3:00-3:20 M-12: D. Easterbrook (Western Washington U) Ice core isotope data: The past is the key to the future
3:20-3:35 Discussion
3:35-4:05 Coffee and Refreshment
M-IV: Models, Forcing, and Feedbacks (Chairs: Anastasios Tsonis and Anjuli Bamzai)
4:05-4:25 M-13: J-S von Storch (Max Planck Institute) Dynamical impact of warming pattern
4:25-4:45 M-14: Q. Fu (U Washington) Warming in the tropical upper troposphere: Models versus observation
4:45-5:05 M-15: S. Schwartz (BNL) Earth’s transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities
5:05-5:25 M-16: R. Salawitch (U Maryland) Impact of aerosols, ocean circulation, and internal feedbacks on climate
5:25-5:45 M-17: N. Andronova (U Michigan) Climate sensitivity and climate feedbacks
5:45-6:00 Discussion
6:00-8:00 Poster Session P-I (with Refreshment)
Monday Evening, October 31
P-I: Poster Session (Chairs: Graeme Stephens, Roger Davis, and Brad Flowers)
PM-1 Tim Garret (U Utah) Will a warmer Arctic be a cleaner Arctic?
PM-2 H. von Storch, A. Bunde (Inst. of Coastal Res., Germany) Examples of using long tem memory in climate analysis
PM-3 P. Chylek, C. Folland, et al (LANL, UK Met Office) Observed and model simulated 20th century Arctic temperature variability: Anthropogenic warming and natural climate variability
PM-4 K. McKinnon, P. Huybers (Harvard U) The fingerprint of ocean on seasonal and inter-annual temperature change
PM-5 Anthony Davis (JPL) Frontiers in Remote Sensing: Multi-Pixel and/or Time-Domain Techniques
PM-6 Christopher Monckton Is CO2 mitigation cost-effective?
PM-7 H. Moosmuller, et al (Desert Res. Inst., U Nevada) A Development of a Super-continuum Photoacoustic Aerosol Absorption and Albedo Spectrometer for the Characterization of Aerosol Optics
PM-8 H. Inhaber (Risk Concept) Will Wind Fulfill its Promise of CO2 Reductions?
PM-9 M. Chen, J. Rowland, et al (LANL) Temporal and Spatial Patterns in Thermokarst Lake Area Change in Yukon Flats, Alaska: an Indication of Permafrost Degradation
PM-10 M. Kafatos, H. El-Askary, et al (Schmid College, WMO) Multi-Model Simulations and satellite observations for Assessing Impacts of Climate Variability on the Agro-ecosystems
PM-11 C. Xu, et al, (LANL, NCAR) Toward a mechanistic modeling of nitrogen limitation on vegetation dynamics
PM-12 H. Hayden (U Connecticut) Doing the Obvious: Linearizing
PM-13 L. Hinzman (U Alaska) The Need for System Scale Studies in Polar Regions
PM-14 X. Jiang, et al. (LANL, NCAR) Regional-scale vegetation die-off in response to climate Change in the 21st century
Tuesday Morning, November 1
7:30-8:30 Registration and continental breakfast
T-I: Models, Forcing and Feedbacks (Chairs: Peter Huybers and Joel Rowland)
8:30-8:50 T-1: V. Ramaswamy (NOAA GFDL) Addressing the leading scientific challenges in climate modeling
8:50-9:10 T-2: P. Webster (Georgia Tech) Challenges in deconvoluting internal and forced climate change
9:10-9:30 T-3: H. von Storch (Institute for Coastal Research, Hamburg) Added value generated by regional climate models
9:30-9:50 T-4: A. Solomon (U Colorado) Decadal predictability of tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean temperature trends
9:50-10:05 Discussion
10:05-10:35 Coffee and Refreshment
T-II: Observations (Judy Curry and Manvendra Dubey)
10:35-10:55 T-5: S. Wofsy (Harvard) HIAPER Pole to Pole Observations (HIPPO) of climatically important gases and aerosols
10:55-11:15 T-6: R. Muller (UC Berkeley) The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Land Results
11:15-11:35 T-7: R. Rohde (Berkeley Temp Project) A new estimate of the Earth land surface temperature
11:35-11:55 T-8: F. Singer (SEPP) Is the reported global surface warming of 1979 to 1997 real?
11:55-12:15 T-9: J. Xu (NOAA) Evaluation of temperature trends from multiple Radiosondes and Reanalysis products
12:15-12:30 Discussion
12:30-2:00 Lunch on your own
Tuesday Afternoon, November 1
T-III: Cosmic Rays, and the Sun (Chairs: Don Wuebbles and Anthony Davis)
2:00-2:20 T-10: P. Brekke (Space Center, Norway) Does the Sun Contribute to climate change? An update
2:20-2:40 T-11: G. Kopp (U Colorado) Solar irradiance and climate
2:40-3:00 T-12: A. Shapiro (World Radiation Center, Davos) Present and past solar irradiance: a quest for understanding
3:00-3:20 T-13: B. Tinsley (U Texas) The effects of cosmic rays on CCN and climate
3:20-3:35 Discussion
3:35-4:05 Coffee and Refreshment
T-IV: Aerosols and Clouds (Chairs: William Cotton and Daniel Rosenfeld)
4:05-4:25 T-14: J. Vernier (NASA Langley) Accurate estimate of the stratospheric aerosol optical depth for climate simulations
4:25-4:55 T-15: J. Coakley (Oregon SU) Knowledge gained about marine stratocumulus and the aerosol indirect effect
4:55-5:05 T-16: G. Stephens (NASA JPL) Clouds, aerosols, radiation, rain and climate
5:05-5:25 T-17: J. Augustine (NOAA) Surface radiation budget measurements from NOAA’s SURFRAD network
5:25-5:40 T-18: G. Jennings (Ireland National U) Direct Radiative Forcing over the North East Atlantic
5:40-5:55 Discussion
6:30-8:00 Banquet
B-1: Judy Curry (Georgia Tech) The uncertainty monster at the climate science-policy interface
B-2: Anjuli Bamzai (NSF) Global and regional climate change research at NSF: Current activity and future plans
Wednesday Morning, November 2
7:30-8:30 Registration and continental breakfast
W-I: Weather, Climate, and Arctic Terrestrial Processes (Chairs: Larry Hinzman and Cathy Wilson)
8:30-8:50 W-0: T. Schuur (U Florida) Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon Research Coordination Network
8:50-9:10 W-1: H. Epstein (U Virginia) Recent dynamics of arctic tundra vegetation: Observations and modeling
9:10-9:30 W-2: E. Euskirchen (U Alaska) Quantifying CO2 fluxes across permafrost and soil moisture gradients in arctic Alaska
9:30-9:50 W-3: D. Lawrence (NCAR) High-latitude terrestrial climate change feedbacks in an Earth System Model
9:50-10:05 Discussion
10:05-10:35 Coffee and Refreshment
W-II: The Arctic (Chairs: Qiang Fu and Keeley Costigan)
10:35-10:55 W-5: M. Flanner (U Michigan) Arctic climate: Unique vulnerability and complex response to aerosols
10:55-11:15 W-6: R. Stone (NOAA) Characterization and direct radiative impact of Arctic aerosols: Observed and modeled
11:15-11:35 W-7: M. Zelinka (LLNL) Climate feedbacks and poleward energy flux changes in a warming climate
11:35-11:55 W-8: G. De Boer (U Colorado) The present-day Arctic atmosphere in CCSM4
11:55-12:15 W-9: R. Peltier (U Toronto) Rapid climate change in the Arctic: the case of Younger-Dryas cold reversal
12:15-12:30 Discussion
12:30-2:00 Lunch on your own
Wednesday Afternoon, November 2
W-III: Arctic and Global Climate Variability (Chairs: Igor Polyakov and Sebestian Mernild)
2:00-2:20 W-10: G. North (Texas A&M) Looking for climate signals in ice core data
2:20-2:40 W-11: T. Kobashi (National Inst Polar Research, Tokyo) High variability of Greenland temperature over the past 4000 years
2:40-3:00 W-12: M. Palus (Inst Comp Sci, Prague) Phase coherence between solar/geomagnetic activity and climate variability
3:00-3:20 W-13: N. Scafetta (Duke U) The climate oscillations: Analysis, implication and their astronomical origin
3:20-3:35 Discussion
3:35-4:05 Coffee and Refreshment
W-IV: Greenhouse Gases, Aerosols, and Energy Balance (Steve Wofsy and James Coakley)
4:05-4:25 W-14: M. Dubey (LANL) Multiscale greenhouse gas measurements of fossil energy emissions and climate feedbacks
4:25-4:45 W-15: C. Loehle (Nat Council for Air Improvement) Climate change attribution using empirical decomposition
4:45-5:05 W-16: R. Davies (U Auckland) The greenhouse effect of clouds: Observation and theory
5:05-5:25 W-17: V. Grewe (Inst Atmos Physics, Oberpfaffenhofen) Attributing climate change to NOx emissions
5:25-5:40 Discussion
5:40-7:00 Poster Session P-II (No refreshments)
Wednesday Evening, November 2, 2011
P-II: Poster Session (Chairs: Mark Flanner, Hans Moosmuller, and Dave Higdon)
PW-1 Chris Borel-Donohue (Air Force Institute of Technology) Novel Temperature/Emissivity Separation Algorithms for Hyperspectral Imaging Data
PW-2 R. Stone, J. Augustine, E. Dutton (NOAA, Earth System Res. Lab.) Radiative Forcing Efficiency of the Fourmile Canyon Fire Smoke: A Near-Perfect Ad Hoc Experiment
PW-3 Fred Singer (SEPP) Are observed and modeled patterns of temperature trends ‘Consisten’? Comparing the ‘Fingerprints’
PW-4 Brian A Tinsley (University of Texas at Dallas) Charge Modulation of Aerosol Scavenging (CMAS): Causing Changes in Cyclone Vorticity and European Winter Circulation?
PW-5 A. V. Shapiro, et al. (World Rad. Center, Davos, Switzerland) The stratospheric ozone response to a discrepancy of the SSI data
PW-6 M. Palus, et al. (Inst. of Computer Science, Prague, Czech Republic) Discerning connectivity from dynamics in climate networks
PW-7 Mark Boslough (SNL) Comparison of Climate Forecasts: Expert Opinions vs. Prediction Markets
PW-8 C. Gangodagamage, et al. (LANL) Clustering and Intermittency of Daily Air Temperature Fluctuations in the North-Central Temperate Region of the U.S.
PW-9 Michael LuValle (OFS Laboratories) Suggested attribution of Irene’s flooding in New Jersey (2011) via statistical postdiction derived from chaos theory
PW-10 A. Winguth, et al. (University of Texas, Arlington) Climate Response at the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum to Greenhouse Gas Forcing – An Analog for Future Climate Change
PW-11 David Mascarenas, et al. (LANL) The development of Autonomous Mobile Sensor Nodes for CO2 Source/Sink Characterization
PW-12 Richard Field, Paul Constantine, and Mark Boslough (SNL) Statistical Surrogate Models for Estimating Probability of High-Consequence Climate Change
PW-13 Steve Schwartz (BNL) Earth's transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities
Thursday Morning, November 3, 2011
7:30-8:30 Registration and continental breakfast
Th-I: Theory, Experiment, and Observations (Chairs: Brian Tinsley and Nick Hengartner)
8:30-8:50 Th-1: J. Curtius (Frankfurt U) Atmospheric aerosol nucleation in the CLOUD experiment at CERN
8:50-9:10 Th-2: E. Dunne (U Leeds) The influence of ion-induced nucleation on atmospheric aerosols in CERN CLOUD experiment
9:10-9:30 Th-3: W. Hsieh (UBC) Machine learning methods in climate and weather research
9:30-9:50 Th-4: C. Essex (U Western Ontario) Regime algebra and climate theory
9:50-10:05 Discussion
10:05-10:35 Coffee and Refreshment
Th-II: Atlantic Ocean and Climate (Chairs: Anastasios Tsonis and Nicola Scaffeta)
10:35-10:55 Th-5: M. Hecht (LANL) A perspective on some strength and weaknesses of ocean climate models
10:55-11:15 Th-6: L. Frankcombe (Utrecht U) Atlantic multidecadal variability - a stochastic dynamical systems point of view
11:15-11:35 Th-7: S. Mahajan (ORNL) Impact of the AMOC on Arctic Sea-ice variability
11:35-11:55 Th-8: P. Chylek (LANL) Ice core evidence for a high spatial and temporal variability of the AMO
11:55-12:15 Th-9: M. Vianna (Oceanica, Brazil) On the 20 year sea level fluctuation mode in Atlantic Ocean and the AMO
12:15-12:30 Discussion
12:30-2:00 Lunch on your own
Thursday Afternoon, November 3
Th-III: Climate Change and Vegetation (Chairs: Michael Cai and Thom Rahn)
2:00-2:20 Th-10: N. McDowell (LANL) Climate, carbon, and vegetation mortality
2:20-2:40 Th-11: D. Gutzler (UNM) Observed and projected hydroclimatic variability and change in the southwestern United States
2:40-3:00 Th-12: C. Allen (USGS) Tree mortality and forest die-off response to climate change stresses at regional to global scales
3:00-3:20 Th-13: J. Chambers (LBL) Carbon balance of an old-growth Central Amazon forest
3:20-3:35 Discussion
3:35-4:05 Coffee and Refreshment
Th-IV: Climate Change and Economics (Chairs: Richard Lindzen and John Augustine)
4:05-4:25 Th-14: T. Garrett (U Utah) Thermodynamic constrains on long-term anthropogenic emission scenarios
4:25-4:45 Th-15: C. Monckton Is CO2 mitigation cost-effective?
4:45-5:05 Th-16: D. Pasqualini (LANL) Does the climate change the economy? An investigation on local economic impact
5:05-5:25 Th-17: M. Boslough (SNL) Using prediction market to evaluate various global warming hypotheses
5:25-5:40 Discussion
Friday Morning, November 4
7:30-8:30 Registration and continental breakfast
F-I: Observations (Chairs: Steve Love and Brad Henderson)
8:30-8:50 F-1: A. Davis (NASA JPL) Cloud and aerosol remote sensing: Thinking outside the photon state-space box
8:50-9:10 F-2: H. Moosmuller (DRI U Nevada) Aerosol optics, direct radiative forcing, and climate change
9:10-9:30 F-3: N-A Morner (Paleogeophysics, Stockholm) Sea level changes in the Indian Ocean: Observational facts
9:30-9:50 F-4: O. Kalashnikova (NASA JPL) MISR decadal aerosol observations
9:50-10:05 Discussion
10:05-10:35 Coffee and Refreshment
F-II: Models, Forcing, and Feedbacks (Chairs: Tim Garrett and Chris Essex)
10:35-10:55 F-5: D. Lemoine (U Arizona) Formalizing uncertainty about climate feedbacks
10:55-11:15 F-6: P. Knappenberger, Short-term climate model projected trends of global temperature and observations
11:15-11:35 F-7: C. Keller (LANL) Solar forcing of climate: A review
11:35-11:55 F-8: W. Gray (CSU) Recent multi-century climate changes as a result of variation in the global ocean’s deep MOC
11:55-12:15 F-9: C. Folland (UK Met Office) Global surface temperature trends from six forcing and internal variability factors
12:15-12:30 Discussion
12:30 Conference Ends
