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December 2013

New studies on sub-Saharan Africa
focus on the banking sector, the West African Economic and Monetary Union, on energy subsidy reforms in Africa, as well as country-specific studies on Mali and Senegal. Also of interest are recently published books on managing natural resource wealth in Africa. For a limited time, most of the publications in this newsletter will be available to read, free-of-charge, in the eLibrary (until December 19). After that date, you may subscribe to the IMF eLibrary and gain access to over 13,000 publications for only $99 per year. You can also order recently published books from your local stockists or from Amazon, CNPIEC and other retailers.
  
 
arrowRegional Focus
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   Africa-Banking-Sub-Sah           

Banking in Sub-Saharan Africa: the Macroeconomic Context
The banking sector remains underdeveloped in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), thus reducing its contribution to growth, although its limited integration with global financial markets helped countries weather adverse effects of the global financial crisis. This paper discusses the main features of the region’s growth and macroeconomic performance in recent years and the outlook for the coming years; it then reviews the main features of banking systems in sub-Saharan Africa and how they were affected by the global economic crisis, while flagging some factors that could influence financial sector developments in SSA in the period ahead.
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  Energy-Subsidy-shadow 


Energy Subsidy Reform in the Sub-Saharan Africa: Experiences and Lessons

The reform of energy subsidies is an important but challenging issue for sub-Saharan African countries. This paper tailors its discussion to respond to the following questions: Why it is important for sub-Saharan countries to reduce energy subsidies? What are the difficulties involved in energy subsidy reform? How best can a subsidy reform be implemented?

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   REO-Sub-Oct-13 Regional Economic Outlook, Sub-Saharan Africa
The October 2013 Regional Economic Outlook provides a comprehensive report on the prospects for growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, as well as the major risks. Generally, growth is expected to remain strong despite a downward revision since the May 2013 report. The report analyzes drivers of growth in nonresource-rich sub-Saharan African countries, and examines the risks to frontier market economies of volatile capital flows as they become more integrated with international capital markets.
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  AFR-Shocks

Responding to Shocks and Maintaining Stability in the West African Economic and Monetary Union
The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), like other monetary unions, faces a number of challenges in dealing with macroeconomic shocks. The region experiences a large number of exogenous shocks: climate-related (e.g., droughts, floods), with a heavy toll on populations and agriculture, but also economic (e.g., terms of trade), with a large impact on key sectors and the cost of living. Addressing these shocks, while preserving the stability of the union, is therefore a critical issue in the WAEMU. This paper discusses these issues and suggests possible reforms.

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  AFR-West-Africa

West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU): Financial Depth and Macrostability
The financial system in the WAEMU remains largely bank-based. The banking sector comprises 106 banks and 13 financial institutions, which together hold more than 90 percent of the financial system’s assets. Five banks account for 50 percent of banking assets. The ownership structure of the sector is changing fast, with the rapid rise of foreign-owned (pan-African) banks. This contributes to higher competition but also rising heterogeneity in the banking system, with large and profitable cross-country groups competing with often weaker country-based (and sometime government-owned) banks. Nonbank financial institutions are developing quickly, notably insurance companies, but remain overall small. This paper presents a detailed analysis of the banking system.
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arrowCountry Focus 
   
   AFR-Mali
                  

Mali: Achieving Strong and Inclusive Growth with Macroeconomic Stability
This paper studies Mali’s performance in poverty reduction by analyzing household data from surveys in 2001, 2006, and 2009–10. Mali’s share of poor households has decreased substantially during the past decade. While the reduction in headcount poverty was more pronounced from 2001–06 when all sectors of Mali’s economy grew at a similar pace, economic growth was mainly beneficial to the very poor during 2006–10 when agricultural production boomed.
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   AFR-Senegal-13-04  

Senegal: Achieving High and Inclusive Growth While Preserving Fiscal Sustainability Senegal's growth has been sluggish in recent years, with implications for poverty reduction. Average growth was relatively strong in 1995–2005 and accompanied by a large drop in poverty incidence. Due partly to a series of exogenous shocks, growth decreased to an average of 3.3 percent in 2006–11.As a result, per capita income increased only modestly and poverty incidence barely decreased during this period and remains high. Wide disparities exist between rural areas, where poverty incidence is higher than the national average, and urban areas.
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   AFR-Senegal-13-05

Senegal: Financial Depth and Macrostability

This enhanced review of Senegal’s financial sector is one of several pilot reviews called for by the Executive Board of the IMF in May 2012. The purpose of the reviews is to go beyond the traditional surveillance focus on banking system soundness and solvency by analyzing in more depth the interplay between financial development, macroeconomic and financial stability, and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies in low-income countries. Senegal is a member of the West African Economic and Monetary Union; a number of key macroeconomic and financial policies are designed and implemented at the union level. This study focuses on Senegal-specific issues. Another pilot study, to be prepared in the context of the next annual consultation on regional policies in early 2013, will focus on union-wide issues.
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